Climate Change Forecasts Improve

Scientists investigate the unknown. It’s is unknown, that’s why so little is known about it. That’s true with pandemics, their treatments – and things like climate change. The original estimates of climate change from decades were intelligent guesses, and largely right in timing and scope. Since then, the math models, the data collected, the interpretations, and the identification of the important factors have improved. That’s the good news. Recent forecasts (1979) were for temperature increases of 3F to 9F, both of which were alarming. Now, the forecasts are for increases of 4.5F to 7F. That’s bad, because the lower estimate rose by 50%; with at least some good news because the upper forecast is down from 9F to 7F. The improvement in the methods is impressive (those limits represent odds of 5 in 6 of being correct), but the message remains as alarming as before. At least now our tools and understanding are improving. The forecasts can aid those who respect facts, data, and logic. As for those who deny facts, data, and logic – well, that’s another challenge.