Climate change is expected to decrease US GDP by 6%, which would turn it negative. The lower 48 states, however, cover a great diversity of geography and climates. Some states, particularly those in the east, south, and in already hot climates, could see local GDP drop by as much as 30%. Northern and mountain states could actually see local GDP rise by as much as 15%. Too much heat in the south reduces farm yields. Too much sea rise affects Atlantic coastal states. In contrast, northern states benefit from warmer temperatures for farming and less heating requirements in winter. Pacific coastal states will see some sea level rise, but the geology and hydrology is different making the impact much smaller. Ironically, those most worried about climate change may actually see a local (though not global) benefit. Those least convinced about climate change may see the greatest impacts. Climate change refugees may create societal and political dynamics that further shift the collective culture, probably in ways that are harder to predict than climate change.
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